Weekly Newsletter
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The first full week of 2026 delivered an unmistakable message from markets: risk appetite is intact, participation is widening, and investors are willing to put capital to work despite an unusually dense mix of policy headlines and geopolitical uncertainty. Equity indices pushed to new highs, small caps and cyclicals took the lead, and rotation beneath the surface became more pronounced. This was not a fragile melt-up driven by a narrow group of names. It was a week defined by conviction, repositioning, and a growing willingness to look past near-term noise.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
U.S. equity markets closed the final session of 2025 on a mixed note, a fitting end to a year defined by rotation, resilience, and repeated tests of conviction. Beneath those surface-level moves, the internal story was more nuanced. The S&P 500 and Dow recovered from two-week lows, supported by renewed strength in semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks. That strength, however, was selective. Megacap technology weighed on the Nasdaq 100, pulling it to a two-week low, while weakness in cybersecurity and insurance stocks capped broader market upside. Adding to the headwinds, higher bond yields exerted pressure on equity valuations, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to a one-and-a-half-week high of 4.19%.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Friday ended quietly on the surface, but the week as a whole carried an unmistakable message. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) via SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) slipped just -0.03% on the day, the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DOWI) via SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) fell -0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (IUXX) via Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) eased -0.05%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) closed down -0.08% and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) finished -0.07%. Those are rounding errors. What matters is that the S&P 500 edged to a fresh all-time high intraday before fading slightly, and that the index still closed the week up +1.4%, with the Nasdaq 100 up +1.2% over the same period.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Stock indexes came into December with the wind at their backs. By Friday’s close, the S&P 500 had climbed to a 5-week high, the Nasdaq 100 marked a 1-month high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to a 3-week high. The broader Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.91% on the week, the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.84%, and the S&P 500 added a modest but meaningful gain of its own. Both the cap-weighted and equal-weight S&P 500 finished the week slightly higher, and Friday’s advance made it eight wins in the last nine sessions for the S&P 500.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
There is an old cliche in the movies: it is quiet, a little too quiet. That is how the equity market has felt for much of this year, grinding steadily higher in a remarkably smooth 40% rally in the S&P 500 from the April lows. That quiet was abruptly interrupted in November. Volatility spiked, leadership wobbled, and the AI trade that had powered so much of the advance finally met some gravity. By the end of this week, US equity indexes had endured another choppy stretch, continuing the worst run since the tariff-driven sell-offs of April, and yet again had to be rescued late on a Friday.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The past week in markets was less about one clean narrative and more about several overlapping stories colliding at once. U.S. stocks wrestled with shifting expectations for December rate policy, the end of the longest government shutdown in history, a re-rating of AI and technology leaders, and another leg down in crypto. Under the surface, sector and style rotations accelerated even as headline indexes finished only modestly changed. The result was a week where the tape felt noisy and fragile, but also one that offered useful tells about where capital is quietly migrating.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The week began on a cautious note. Markets opened to the soft hum of machines marking time, volume low, breadth uneven, and sentiment slightly bruised. After several months of relentless momentum, the tone had changed — not abruptly, but perceptibly. What had once been a one-way trade in tech enthusiasm had started to look more like a two-way conversation. Traders weren’t abandoning their positions; they were trimming sails, respecting the shifting winds.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Halloween closed out a month that gave investors plenty of both tricks and treats, and yet the story into month-end is that risk assets continue to climb. Major U.S. equity indexes finished the week with a mixed tone under the surface but positive headlines at the top. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led gains thanks to renewed strength in mega-cap technology that continues to benefit from artificial intelligence spending. The S&P 500 Index also advanced, even though seven of its 11 sectors finished lower and the equal-weighted version of the index underperformed the traditional market-cap weighted index by 268 basis points.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The market closed the week by doing something simple and decisive: it set new records while absorbing policy noise, headline risk, and a still-disrupted data calendar. The S&P 500 Index rose +0.79% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrials Index gained +1.01%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index advanced +1.04%. The futures market ratified the move with December E-mini S&P (ESZ25) up +0.74% and December E-mini Nasdaq (NQZ25) up +1.00%. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rallied to new record highs, with the S&P 500 clearing 6,800 for the first time after spending nine straight sessions inside a 200-point intraday range carved out on October 10. That break above range and through the 20-day moving average came with the tape buying dips and respecting the 50-day moving average as support.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The final session of the week closed on a constructive note for U.S. equities, and it did so for reasons that were notably different from the ones that sent markets reeling the prior Friday. What changed was not a wholesale improvement in growth or inflation, but a subtle easing in the tenor of U.S.–China trade headlines, a distinctly dovish color from the Federal Reserve, and early evidence that the third-quarter earnings season is more resilient than feared. Together those shifts were enough to push stocks higher into Friday’s close, even as the government shutdown dragged on and forced key data off the calendar. It was a week that began with the S&P 500 Index clawing back from its worst single-day loss since April and ended with the tape acting like it wanted to stabilize and re-price risk as uncertainty ebbed at the margin.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
U.S. equities finished the week with the kind of sharp, policy-driven reversal that reminds everyone why risk management matters. On Friday, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) closed down -2.71%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DIA) closed down -1.90%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) closed down -3.49%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) fell -2.61%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) fell -3.39%. What began as a session supported by lower yields ended as a broad de-risking when President Trump threatened a “massive increase†of tariffs on Chinese goods and said there seemed to be no reason to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC meeting in South Korea later this month. Stocks gave up an early advance, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slipped to two-week lows, and the Dow Jones Industrials fell to a one-month low.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The S&P 500 Index finished Friday up +0.01%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index gained +0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index slipped -0.43%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.01%, while December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) fell -0.44%. That left all three major U.S. benchmarks with fresh all-time highs even as the day’s intraday path underscored an unresolved tug-of-war between cyclical growth hopes and rate-sensitive tech positioning. Early strength came from chipmakers and AI-infrastructure shares on optimism that the sector’s build-out will translate into corporate earnings, but that bid faded as Treasury yields climbed. The 10-year T-note yield rose +4 bp to 4.12% following hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, both cautioning against additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The tape closed Friday with a constructive lean that masked a choppy week beneath the surface. The S&P 500 Index finished the session up +0.59%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index gained +0.65%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index added +0.44%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.60%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) climbed +0.44%. The bid into the bell was grounded in two things the market still cares about deeply: the durability of consumer spending and the glide path of inflation as measured by the Fed’s preferred core PCE. Friday’s August personal spending print advanced +0.6% m/m versus +0.5% expected, the strongest pace in five months, while core PCE rose +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, exactly on consensus. That combination—consumers still opening their wallets while the most-watched inflation metric stays contained—supported risk.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The tape closed the week the way it traded most of the week: calm, constructive, and relentlessly upward. On Friday, the S&P 500 Index (SPX; ETF: SPY) finished +0.49%, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI; ETF: DIA) ended +0.37%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX; ETF: QQQ) gained +0.70%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) added +0.42% and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose +0.68%. All three majors posted new all-time highs. The mechanism wasn’t fireworks; it was absorption. The catalyst wasn’t a single headline; it was a mosaic: a Federal Reserve “risk-management†cut, a giant quarterly expiration and index rebalance, and policy headlines that looked spicy at 30,000 feet but left the range surprisingly contained on the ground.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
We came in on Friday with index futures already leaning higher, the mood still buoyant from a week that steadily re-priced the path of policy easing. The open did what opens do at new highs: it tested resolve. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 punched out fresh intraday records early, but by the close the tone had cooled—S&P off a hair, Dow heavier, Nasdaq 100 up modestly. That rollover wasn’t a mystery. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed about five basis points to roughly 4.06%, and the University of Michigan’s September sentiment slipped to 55.4—lowest in four months—while longer-run inflation expectations in that survey perked up to 3.9% from 3.5%. When the cost of money lifts and consumer mood sours in the same hour, equity longs take a little off.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
We opened Friday on a relief pop and closed with a sigh. The headline equity indices split three ways: the S&P 500 and Dow faded into the red (-0.32% and -0.48% respectively) while the Nasdaq 100 eked out a small win (+0.08%). On the futures side, September S&P minis finished -0.35%; Nasdaq minis were up a hair at +0.04%. That’s exactly how the whole week felt—optimism in the morning, fatigue by the afternoon, and a market that keeps testing higher only to think twice.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Friday’s close brought the kind of uneasy punctuation mark that tends to linger over a long weekend. The S&P 500 shed -0.64%, the Dow ticked down by a milder -0.20%, and the Nasdaq 100 slumped by -1.22%, the day’s heaviest casualty. Underneath the surface, the E-mini contracts told a similar story: September S&P futures were lower by -0.68%, and Nasdaq futures fell by -1.31%. The culprit wasn’t hard to find. Technology—which had carried so much of this year’s enthusiasm—took the brunt of the damage.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
It was the kind of Friday close that forces investors to sit up straight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 1.9%, punching out a fresh all-time high. The S&P 500 tacked on 1.5% and clawed back into positive territory for the week. Even the Nasdaq 100, under pressure much of the summer from profit-taking in mega-cap tech, snapped higher by a similar margin. The trigger was clear: Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his Jackson Hole pulpit to hint that the next policy move could be down, not up. Bonds ripped, the dollar sagged, equities cheered. For the first time in months, the market had the sense that the central bank was blinking.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
If you only glanced at the closing tape on Friday, you could miss the story. Headline indices meandered: the S&P 500 slipped, the Nasdaq underperformed a touch, and the Dow eked out a gain. Under the surface, it was the kind of week technicians circle with a Sharpie. Leadership broadened early, cyclicals and smaller caps carried the baton for once, and then a hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation print forced everyone to recalibrate just as traders started gaming out September rate-cut odds and watching geopolitics out of Alaska.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
It was one of those weeks where the market seemed determined to test both the endurance and the patience of investors. Equity indexes managed to put together a broadly positive performance, but it wasn’t a straight line higher — more like a jagged climb punctuated by bursts of optimism, flashes of doubt, and the occasional headline that seemed to knock the wind out of the rally. By the time the closing bell rang on Friday, the S&P 500 had not only recovered from the prior week’s sell-off but also pushed within striking distance of new highs, led once again by the gravitational pull of mega-cap technology. The Nasdaq 100 even managed to carve out a fresh record close, a reminder that, for all the macro uncertainty swirling around, investors still find comfort in the familiar rhythm of strong tech earnings and dominant market positioning.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
It has been one of those weeks in financial markets where the sheer density of headlines risks obscuring the more important narrative threads. On the surface, stocks stumbled; bonds rallied; the dollar was mixed. But beneath those price moves, a number of underlying forces—trade policy, central bank positioning, labor market evolution, and corporate earnings—are quietly rearranging the market’s risk and opportunity set.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Financial markets extended their impressive run this week, with major indices reaching fresh peaks as investors found renewed confidence in a combination of promising trade developments, robust corporate earnings, and clearer policy direction from Washington. The sustained rally reflects a fundamental shift in market sentiment from the uncertainty that plagued earlier periods to a more constructive outlook built on tangible progress across multiple fronts.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Financial markets concluded a tumultuous week with mixed results as investors grappled with escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty. The S&P 500 declined 0.27%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.17%. Despite these modest losses, markets demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of renewed tariff threats and geopolitical developments. The week's narrative was dominated by President Trump's announcement of expanded tariff measures affecting over 20 countries, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%. These developments, coupled with the recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, created a complex policy environment that continues to influence market dynamics and Federal Reserve decision-making.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Financial markets concluded a momentous week with major indices reaching new all-time highs, driven by better-than-expected employment data and significant legislative progress on Capitol Hill. The S&P 500 advanced 1.7% for the week, while smaller-cap indices outperformed with gains exceeding 3%. The week's developments underscore a resilient economic backdrop, though headwinds from policy uncertainty and evolving trade dynamics continue to shape market sentiment.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The final week of June delivered a powerful conclusion to the second quarter, with major U.S. equity indices surging to fresh all-time highs as investors embraced a confluence of favorable developments. The S&P 500 Index climbed 3.44% for the week, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 4.25%, both closing at record levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, though not achieving new peaks, posted solid gains exceeding 2.5% alongside mid-cap and small-cap benchmarks.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Financial markets exhibited remarkable resilience this week despite escalating Middle Eastern tensions, as investors balanced geopolitical uncertainty against continued economic stability and Federal Reserve policy clarity. While equity indices closed mixed, the measured response across asset classes demonstrated market maturity in processing complex, overlapping risks. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting provided an anchor of stability, even as policymakers acknowledged the challenging backdrop of trade tensions, fiscal policy shifts, and international conflicts.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Financial markets concluded the trading week under significant pressure as escalating Middle Eastern tensions overshadowed otherwise constructive economic fundamentals. Major equity indices posted meaningful declines on Friday, with the S&P 500 retreating 1.13%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 1.79%, and the Nasdaq 100 falling 1.29%. The selloff was precipitated by Israeli military operations targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure, prompting a classic risk-off response across asset classes and commodity markets.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Financial markets demonstrated remarkable resilience during the trading week, with major indices posting their second consecutive week of gains despite navigating a complex landscape of trade tensions, employment data, and corporate earnings developments. The S&P 500 Index closed Friday at a 3½-month high, gaining 1.03%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a 3-month peak with a 1.05% advance. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index contributed to the broad-based rally with a 0.99% increase.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The financial markets concluded another eventful week with a complex tapestry of outcomes that defied simple categorization. While major indices managed to eke out modest gains, the underlying dynamics revealed a market grappling with fundamental tensions between corporate resilience and geopolitical uncertainty. This intricate dance between optimism and caution has created a fascinating environment for investors, one where traditional patterns are being challenged and new narratives are emerging.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The financial markets experienced a dramatic shift in sentiment this week, as investors grappled with a confluence of factors that collectively signaled a potential turning point in the current market cycle. What began as concerns over America's fiscal trajectory quickly morphed into a broader reassessment of risk, culminating in renewed trade tensions that sent shockwaves through global markets.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The financial markets experienced a significant rebound this week, with major indices posting their strongest weekly gains in months. This remarkable turnaround was primarily driven by the de-escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China, following productive negotiations in Switzerland. The two economic powerhouses agreed to substantially reduce tariffs during a 90-day period while working toward a longer-term agreement. Additionally, favorable inflation data and strategic policy shifts in the technology sector contributed to the positive market sentiment. Despite these encouraging developments, underlying concerns about consumer confidence, retail spending patterns, and the potential long-term impact of trade policies continue to warrant careful consideration for investors navigating this complex landscape.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The US financial markets traversed uncertain terrain this week as investors processed mixed economic signals, potential trade developments, and the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision. Despite promising developments in international trade relations, major indices closed the week with minimal changes as market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of pivotal trade talks between the United States and China.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The financial markets rallied strongly this week, with major indices posting multi-week highs as investors found renewed optimism amid potential progress on trade relations and resilient economic data. The S&P 500 recorded its ninth consecutive positive session - the longest streak since November 2004 - while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 3.42%, buoyed by better-than-expected earnings from several technology heavyweights. This positive momentum represents a dramatic reversal from early April's volatility, with markets having recovered nearly all of their previous losses. Despite these gains, significant questions remain about the sustainability of economic growth as GDP contracted in the first quarter, tariff concerns linger, and corporations provide cautious forward guidance.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
In the ebb and flow of financial markets, this past week represented a notable chapter in what has become an increasingly dramatic narrative of global economic positioning. Markets staged a measured recovery, with major indices climbing to three-week highs as investors navigated conflicting signals on international trade relations and processed a flurry of corporate earnings announcements. The week's developments revealed a financial ecosystem seeking a new equilibrium—one where trade policy, monetary expectations, and corporate performance converge in an attempt to find fair prices for indices.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The financial markets experienced extreme volatility this week, marked by sharp declines followed by a dramatic recovery. After initially plummeting toward bear market territory, major indices rebounded following the announcement of a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs for most nations, excluding China. The S&P 500 finished the week up 5.70%, the Nasdaq Composite closed 7.29% higher, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.82%. This rollercoaster reflected the market's sensitivity to trade policy developments and their potential impact on economic growth, corporate earnings, and inflation expectations.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The financial markets experienced extraordinary volatility last week, culminating in the steepest weekly decline in five years. Investors watched with growing concern as major indices plummeted in response to unexpected trade policy announcements from the Trump administration. The S&P 500 shed nearly 6% in a single day, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 suffered even steeper losses. This market reaction represents more than typical short-term volatility—it signals deep investor anxiety about potential economic disruption and global trade conflicts that could fundamentally alter the economic landscape.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The equity markets closed out the week with significant downside pressure, consolidating a pattern of distribution that's been developing throughout March. Friday's session registered decisive negative momentum across all major indices, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.97%, the Dow Jones Industrials shedding 1.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 experiencing the most acute selling pressure at 2.61%. This price action pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to breach their respective two-week support levels, while the Dow retraced to test its one-week support zone. The futures market is continuing to telegraph weakness, with June E-mini S&P futures contracting 2.18% and June E-mini Nasdaq futures exhibiting even greater relative weakness at 2.89%.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The US equity markets experienced a choppy trading week characterized by low volumes and diminished liquidity as investors navigated a complex landscape of central bank decisions, policy uncertainties, and mixed corporate signals. Despite closing the week with modest gains on Friday, the broader sentiment remained cautious as market participants braced for President Trump's April 2 deadline for the next phase of reciprocal tariff announcements.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The week concluded with U.S. equity markets experiencing their fourth consecutive negative weekly performance, with the S&P 500 briefly entering correction territory, defined as a 10.5% drawdown from recent peaks—the first such correction since October 2023. Despite Friday's relief rally, the index closed down 2.3% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed with a 3.07% decline, while transportation stocks demonstrated particular weakness, declining more than 6% as airlines issued downward guidance revisions.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The first trading week of March 2025 presented a whirlwind of economic developments, policy shifts, and market movements that kept investors on edge. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all experienced significant declines over the week, with the S&P 500 falling 3.1%—its worst performance since September 2024. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fared even worse, dropping 3.5% as investors rotated away from riskier assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.4%, erasing much of its year-to-date gains. These losses were fueled by a confluence of trade policy uncertainty, evolving Federal Reserve expectations, and a mixed labor market report that painted a complex picture of the economy.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The past week in U.S. financial markets was a whirlwind of economic data releases, geopolitical concerns, and shifting investor sentiment. Stock indexes exhibited significant volatility, swinging between gains and losses before closing the week with modest recoveries. Inflation remained a focal point, with the Fed’s preferred gauge—the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—matching expectations but doing little to dispel uncertainty about future monetary policy. Meanwhile, bond yields fell to multi-month lows, reflecting a complex interplay of economic slowing, policy uncertainty, and investor risk aversion.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The past week in the U.S. financial markets was marked by volatility, sharp sell-offs, and concerns over economic indicators. Major indices experienced steep declines, reflecting investor anxiety over inflation expectations, corporate earnings, and regulatory developments. Global markets presented a mixed picture, while bond yields fluctuated in response to economic data and Federal Reserve expectations. With nearly two months of 2025 behind us, key market trends have begun to emerge, shaping the trajectory of equities, fixed income, and macroeconomic conditions for the months ahead.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The U.S. financial markets navigated a complex landscape last week, characterized by shifting monetary policy expectations, surprising economic data, and evolving trade policy considerations. The headline indices painted a picture of measured stability masking significant underlying crosscurrents. While the S&P 500 Index showed minimal movement with a decline of just 0.01%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a more notable drop of 0.37%. The Nasdaq 100 emerged as the relative winner, advancing 0.38% amid continued enthusiasm for technology and growth stocks.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The first week of February 2025 brought significant challenges to U.S. financial markets as multiple headwinds converged to pressure equity indices. The S&P 500 demonstrated relative resilience with a modest decline of 0.95%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.99% and the Nasdaq 100 experienced a more pronounced drop of 1.30%. These movements came amid a complex interplay of economic data, policy developments, and corporate earnings releases that shaped market sentiment throughout the week.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The final week of January 2025 was marked by significant volatility in the U.S. financial markets, driven by a confluence of corporate earnings reports, geopolitical developments, and economic data releases. This period underscored the intricate interplay between policy decisions, market sentiment, and economic indicators.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
With only a week left in the first month of 2025, the United States financial markets revealed a complex tapestry of economic signals, technological aspirations, and political recalibration. The stock market's performance painted a nuanced picture of resilience and challenge, with major indices experiencing modest declines yet holding near historical highs.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
U.S. economic data released on Friday painted a picture of resilience and optimism. Housing starts for December surged by 15.8% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.499 million, a 10-month high that significantly exceeded forecasts of 1.327 million. Building permits, a proxy for future construction activity, declined slightly by 0.7% to 1.483 million but still outperformed expectations of 1.460 million. Meanwhile, December manufacturing production rose 0.6% month-over-month, marking the largest increase in four months and doubling analyst estimates of 0.2% growth. These figures highlight a robust housing market and manufacturing sector, despite the headwinds of higher interest rates.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The second week of January 2025 has delivered a stark reality check to financial markets, forcing investors to confront a fundamental disconnect between their optimistic rate cut expectations and the persistent strength of the U.S. economy. As major indices retreated from their recent highs, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both falling to two-month lows, the market narrative has shifted dramatically from when the Federal Reserve might cut rates to whether such cuts are even warranted in the current economic environment.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The first trading week of 2025 presented a mixed picture for U.S. financial markets, as investors grappled with the transition from an exceptionally strong 2024 into the uncertainties of a new year. The major stock indices experienced modest declines through most of the week before staging a recovery on Friday, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow each posting weekly losses of approximately 0.5%. Friday's session saw the S&P 500 rise 1.26%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gain 0.80%, and the Nasdaq 100 advance 1.67%, helping to offset earlier weakness.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut at its December meeting, lowering the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25%–4.5%. This marked the culmination of a year-long cycle of monetary easing that has reduced rates by a full percentage point from their September peak of 5.5%. However, it was the Fed’s projections for 2025 that captured market attention and sparked volatility.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The U.S. financial markets have exhibited remarkable resilience and complexity over the past year, driven by a confluence of economic factors, corporate performance, and monetary policy shifts. Last week, this resilience was on full display as the Nasdaq Composite briefly surpassed the milestone 20,000 mark, capping off another chapter in a year characterized by strong market performance. The narrative underpinning these gains includes solid economic growth, robust corporate earnings, moderating inflation, and the initiation of monetary easing by central banks. However, as we approach 2025, signs of stalling progress in inflation improvement have introduced uncertainty into the outlook, particularly regarding the future actions of the Federal Reserve and other global central banks.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
As the year concludes and the holiday season envelops us, investors find much to celebrate. The financial markets have climbed to unprecedented heights, with record-breaking stock performances and favorable bond yields reflecting a buoyant economic landscape. Underpinning this strength is a U.S. economy that continues to grow at or above trend, defying predictions of recession.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Major U.S. stock indexes rebounded strongly, recovering losses from the prior week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outpaced the broader market, achieving a new record high, while the S&P 500 finished just shy of its own record. The Nasdaq Composite trailed slightly, reflecting softness in mega-cap technology stocks, particularly after NVIDIA’s earnings report. In contrast, smaller-cap stocks, as represented by the Russell 2000, surged, delivering a 4.5% weekly gain. This rally reflected a rotation into cyclical and value-oriented sectors.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The global financial markets encountered a momentary lull in momentum this past week, as investor focus shifted back to inflation data and Federal Reserve policy. After a period of robust post-election gains, the S&P 500 surrendered approximately 2% over the week. Despite this setback, the index remains up over 23% for the year and has gained over 1% since Election Day. The narrative driving market sentiment is multifaceted, touching on inflation trends, central bank decisions, tariff policies, and broader economic performance.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The U.S. markets were shaped by a blend of political and economic events this past week, setting a strong tone for the coming months. With the U.S. election results confirming a Republican win in the White House and Senate, and an anticipated but uncertain Republican hold on the House, markets began recalibrating to potential policy shifts.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
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Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The week in U.S. markets was marked by rising yields, fluctuating equity prices, and mixed economic indicators, all while investor focus remained on evolving Federal Reserve policy and upcoming election implications. Since the Fed's recent rate cuts, the market has experienced a notable increase in bond yields, with 2- and 10-year Treasury yields climbing amid strong economic and inflation data.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The U.S. stock market has had a stellar run with significant gains that have left many investors optimistic. Since early August 2024, the market has rallied more than 12%, pushing its year-to-date return to nearly 23%. This two-year performance, if sustained, could mark the second consecutive year in which the S&P 500 has delivered a return exceeding 20%.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The past week in the U.S. financial markets can be characterized by significant developments in both the labor market and the equity markets, highlighting the interplay between macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment. One of the focal points for investors continues to be the unemployment rate, which ticked lower to 4.1% in September, though it remains well above its April 2023 cycle low of 3.4%.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
The yield curve, which plots the yields of Treasury securities across various maturities, is one of the most closely watched indicators in financial markets. It is often viewed as a reflection of the market's expectations for future economic conditions. Historically, an upward-sloping yield curve is considered the norm.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Recently, the Federal Reserve initiated its anticipated easing cycle with an unexpectedly large rate cut of 50 basis points (bps), surprising market participants who had anticipated a more typical 25 bps reduction. This bold move signaled the beginning of a new policy direction by the Fed, even as economic indicators, like the August retail sales report, remained strong.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Last week, the Federal Reserve took a bold step in its monetary policy approach, implementing its first interest rate cut in four years and marking a significant pivot in its strategy. This wasn't just any rate cut; it was a substantial half-percentage point reduction, bringing the policy rate down to a target range of 4.75%-5.0% from 5.25%-5.5%.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
This week saw increased market swings, characterized by periods of notable pullbacks followed by strong rebounds. This was primarily driven by inflation data and expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Despite the volatility, the broader stock market is still near all-time highs, suggesting a resilient underlying market sentiment.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Job openings fell by 237,000 to 7.673 million in July 2024, the lowest since January 2021 and below forecasts. Declines were seen in health care, government, and transportation sectors, while openings rose in professional services and the federal government.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
August was a month marked by significant volatility in financial markets, starting with sharp declines and culminating in a remarkable recovery. This period was characterized by economic resilience, shifting market leadership, and evolving expectations regarding monetary policy.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
During the week of August 19 through August 23, 2024, U.S. financial markets experienced some volatility influenced by mixed economic data, earnings reports, and global events. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both saw fluctuations as indices largely chopped in range-bound activity as investors processed news about interest rates and economic performance.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
During the week of August 5 through August 9, 2024, the U.S. financial markets were characterized by notable volatility as the VIX tagged 65+ in a scramble for protection and a mixed performance across various sectors. /NQ was down over 5% in pre-market/globex before the Monday cash open.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
During the week of July 29 through August 2, 2024, the U.S. financial markets faced a tumultuous period marked by significant volatility and mixed economic signals. Major indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq, experienced notable declines, driven by concerns over an economic slowdown and disappointing corporate earnings.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
During the week, U.S. markets experienced notable volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions, earnings reports, and economic data. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) saw gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite faced declines due to pressures on tech stocks.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
During the week of July 8 through July 12, 2024, the U.S. financial markets experienced a range of developments that impacted various sectors. Major indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite, continued to show resilience and reached record highs or near-record levels, driven by a combination of positive economic data and investor sentiment.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
In the week of July 1 through July 5, 2024, the U.S. financial markets experienced significant developments across various sectors. The major indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached new all-time highs.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
During the week of June 24-28, 2024, the U.S. stock market experienced mixed performance amidst fluctuating economic indicators with week highs eventually giving some back to yield-related losses.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Another interesting week, with significant developments across various sectors and economic indicators. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, driven primarily by robust performances in the tech sector.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Here are this week's top 5 prints over the past 30 days for the major indices. These levels represent the top institutional presence in indices and tend to be natural magnets for prices, often acting as support or resistance.
Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast
Here's this week's top 5 prints over the past 30 days for the major indices. These levels represent the top institutional presence in indices and tend to be natural magnets for prices, often acting as support or resistance.